2025 was the year the data center story shifted from “fast growth” to structural limits.
Across power, supply chain, capital markets, and permitting, the trends were unmistakable.
Some were surprising. Most were overdue. All of them are shaping the 2026 cycle.

Here are the five charts that best capture the story of the year.

Chart 1 — Power Demand vs. Power Availability

A widening gap that now defines the entire sector.

Power demand from AI, cloud, and hyperscale workloads grew sharply in 2025 — far faster than utility generation and transmission capacity.
The “power gap” is no longer a future risk; it is the core bottleneck driving:

• site selection
• megacampus design
• on-site generation strategies
• private credit acceleration
• hyperscale procurement timelines

Every major developer’s outlook for 2026 begins with this gap.

Chart 2 — Lead Times for Transformers & Switchgear

The long-lead curve refuses to bend.

Large power transformers and high-voltage switchgear remained some of the most constrained equipment categories in the industry.
Despite new manufacturing investments, lead times stayed elevated in 2025, driving:

• sequencing delays
• commissioning volatility
• multi-month schedule risk
• larger OFCI packages
• regional construction imbalances

This chart is a quiet forecast: procurement maturity becomes a 2026 competitive advantage.

Chart 3 — Private Credit’s Share of Data Center Financing

The year private credit became a pillar of the sector.

Private credit’s share of data center capital deployment surged in 2025, driven by:

• multi-billion refinancing packages
• hyperscale-anchored megacampus deals
• speed + flexibility vs. traditional lending
• developers seeking capital efficiency
• institutional demand for yield

The shift is structural.
2026 will be shaped as much by credit markets as by energy markets.

Chart 4 — Hyperscale Capital Expenditure Growth

The AI buildout accelerates – again.

Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle all increased long-term capex guidance in 2025, signaling:

• continued multi-GW demand
• an expectation of persistent GPU supply
• a pivot toward fungible architectures
• rising density requirements
• the sustained need for global megacampuses

This chart reinforces an underappreciated truth: demand is not the constraint — capacity is.

Chart 5 — Permitting & Interconnection Delays Across Major Markets

Even Tier I markets hit structural resistance.

The average time to secure:

• land entitlements
• environmental clearance
• utility studies
• interconnection approvals

all trended upward in 2025.

This chart shows the market’s new reality:

Developers who can compress permitting and interconnection timelines will capture disproportionate growth in 2026, regardless of region.

Closing Insight

2025 was the year the data center industry ran into its own constraints.
And yet — it was also the year the next wave of innovation began:

• on-site generation
• power-dense campus design
• advanced procurement strategy
• modularized execution
• the emergence of true megaproject specialization

If these charts are any indication, 2026 will reward developers, investors, and operators who can execute through constraint rather than wait for the system to loosen.

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